The World in 2050 Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future Summary ☆ 102

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Wth projections But Smith offers than a compendium of statistics and studies he spent fifteen months traveling the Arctic Rim collecting stories and insights that resonate throughout the book It is an approach much like Jared Diamond took in Guns Germs and Steel and Collapse a work of geoscientific investigation rich in the appreciation of human diversity Packed with stunning photographs original maps and informative tables this is the most authoritative balanced and compelling account available of the world of challenges and opportunities that we will leave for our childre. Presents the argument that climate change population growth and natural resource depletion will drive populations and economic development north towards the Arctic Circle As opposed to many 'futurists' this is not a one dimensional attempt to align predictions with an ideological agenda Instead the author carefully statues his assumptions The models are good enough No magic bullets and then identifies the factors which are likely to have the most impactNuanced is probably overused in describing books like this however in this case both nuanced and balanced are appropriate adjectives

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The World in 2050 Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern FutureA vivid forecast of our planet in the year 2050 by a rising star in geoscience distilling cutting edge research into four global forces demographic trends natural resource demand climate change and globalization The world's population is exploding wild species are vanishing our environment is degrading and the costs of resources from oil to water are going nowhere but up So what kind of world are we leaving for our children and grandchildren Geoscientist and Guggenheim fellow Laurence Smith draws on the latest global modeling research to construct a sweeping thought experim. I had to read a lot of books to get past the political drama of today trying to get a glimpse of what tomorrow will look like Everyone these days needs to be an extremist to have their voice heard So the airways are clogged with Fox and MSNBC and all things marketing and sales not substance Like an ecosystem under stress there is thorns pollen and other environmental shrapnel than any grounded data in this genre That said this book is an exceptionNot only do they stick a stake in the ground and allow it to be kicked at they do so by tabulating lots of facts along with the normal in the field research As a result the author comes up with 4 forces that will shape things in the next 40 years Most importantly he sees past the drama and asked well how will we cope with things and comes up with some very plausible possibilities Further he has not drunk too much of his own Kool Aid and is very clear about the assumptions he is making and the fact that you cannot know what you do not knowAfter trudging through over a dozen books on this topic each of which was likely written by adults raised as only children assured they had a monopoly on truth and as such provided a very narrow and usually we will all die by next year ti raid it was nice to have some normalcy and grounding for once That said this is not a rosy picture but everyone knows that However this does see past the drama and envisions part of how we got in this mess humans adapting in order to stay the same waiting till the last possible minute to make real changes and doing so only when forced

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The World in 2050 Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future Summary ☆ 102 À A vivid forecast of our planet in the year 2050 by a rising star in geoscience distilling cutting edge research into four global forces demographic trends natural resource demand climate change and globalization TEnt on what our world will be like in 2050 The result is both good news and bad Eight nations of the Arctic Rim including the United States will become increasingly prosperous powerful and politically stable while those closer to the euator will face water shortages aging populations and crowded megacities sapped by the rising costs of energy and coastal flooding The World in 2050 combines the lessons of geography and history with state of the art model projections and analytical data everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic gro. What will the world be like in 2050 There's no science fiction here This is a book of solid projections from major global trends written by a scientist Author Laurence Smith engages in a thought experiment what will the world be like in 2050 He makes 4 assumptions upon which his predictions are contingent 1 No Silver Bullets no radical game changing technology ex cold fusion 2 No World War III 3 No Hidden Genies no low probability high impact events ex a large meteorite impact 4 The Models are Good Enough current computer modeling capacity is adeuate enough to make good projections In other words predicting from where we are now with the tools we have now assuming no major upsets in the next 40 yearsWith the rules established Laurence Smith tracks 4 major global forces arguably the largest and strongest forces to their logical conclusions at the target date of 2050 He tracks 1 demography birth rates income ethnicity migration etc 2 resource demand demands placed upon the natural resources services and gene pool of the planet 3globalization the interconnectedness of the world 4climate changeWhat conclusions does this thought experiment reach Mainly we should prepare for a global shift to the North specifically the eight NORC countries Northern Rim countries They are set to become formidable economic powers and migration magnets Global warming while wrecking havoc on the environment will also liberate a treasure trove of gas oil water and other natural resources previously unattainable in the frozen north enriching residents and attracting newcomers It will also open new shipping lanes in the Arctic resulting in new access and economic development in the North Time to buy land north of the 45th parallelIf human population and economic prosperity trajectories continue prepare for water to become blue oil as demand exceeds supply For wildlife to suffer the greatest rate of extinction since the disappearance of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago For societies to be forced to choose dirtier power sources to keep up with energy demand I found one hypothetical in his conclusions particularly interesting Might any of the 4 major global forces screech to a halt between now and 2050 changing predictions His answer was that only one globalization could be derailed shifting world economies from globalization to regionalization Perhaps as the result of global protectionism Perhaps as a result of future lack of cheap energy for transport Perhaps an energy shortage could even create a reversal of urbanization as farming returns to being labor intensive a return to domestic manufacturing or a collapse of overseas tourism Globalization might be the wild card that changes the euationsIn summary An interesting book of solid projections on the world your children and grandchildren will likely inhabit